- Aggregate hours worked were flat.
- All the employment gains were part-time — full-time employment, as per the Household Survey, plunged 254,000.
- Those working part-time for “economic reasons” surged 331,000 — the biggest increase in six months.
- While private payrolls were better than expected, 10,000 of that +67,000 tally reflected returning construction workers who had been on strike.
- Manufacturing employment was down 27,000 and total goods producing jobs were flat — hardly signs of a robust economic backdrop.
- The diffusion index for private payrolls actually fell to 53.0 from 56.7 in July — a seven-month low. It was 68.0 at the April high, which is consistent with an economy slowing down to stall-speed.
- The labor market gap widened with the all-inclusive U6 unemployment rate rising to a four-month high of 16.7% from 16.5% in July. This is why the odds are stacked against a sustained acceleration in wages.
In sum, last week’s market movers suggest a rally that is a mere countermove in the longer term downtrend, particularly considering the hurdles that lie ahead as discussed below.