"So a P/E of 15 at the stock bottom sounds reasonable, but would put the S&P 500 index at 600 then, down 32% from here and 61% below its record close on Oct. 9, 2007. Wow! .... Last month, the S&P 500 fell below 777. It has since bounced, but probably not for long as new lows lie ahead."
"Washington officials cringe at the suggestion that these measures amount to "quantitative easing," the Japanese policy initiated in 2001, because it failed to rapidly spur Japanese bank lending and the economy and arrest deflation. The Bank of Japan drove its target rate to zero with no effect and then tried to hype the quantity of money by buying government bonds, asset-backed securities and even stocks.
[My Note: just this week, the Japanese government announced that it will spend more than 220 billion dollars to once again buy stocks in an attempt to put an artificial floor under the Japanese stock market. It didn't work last time, but... At least the Japanese can do it with reserves instead of going into debt like the U.S.!]
"Current quantitative easing by the Fed may not be any more successful than it was in Japan since the global financial system is in a classic liquidity trap, as in the 1930s when bankers were defined as people who wanted to lend to those who didn't need to borrow and didn't want to lend to those who did. Today, banks don't want to lend to anyone but the U.S. Treasury.
"Conventional monetary policy ease through central bank target interest rate cuts at present is nearly useless, i.e., pushing on a string. Qualitative easing, now actively pursued by the Fed and the Treasury and by central banks and governments abroad, will probably at best only stabilize demoralized financial structures by substituting government securities for questionable assets with little near-term rejuvenation of lending and economic activity. "
"The FDIC recently announced that the institutions it insures had only $1.7 billion in earnings in the third quarter, down from $28.7 billion a year earlier. And financial troubles aren't confined to banks. Many hedge funds have suffered huge losses on their highly leveraged positions this year. And their sales of securities to limit further losses and to meet investo redemptions are adding downward pressure on many markets. In some, assets are down 50% while others are folding their tents and still others are limiting redemptions, only adding to investor restiveness. Redemptions are expected to jump early next year."
Click here to read the entire newsletter."At present around 12 million homeowners, a quarter of those with mortgages, are underwater with their houses worth less than their mortgages. Among those who bought their homes in the past five years, 29% are underwater. If our forecast of a 37% house price fall is reached, about 25 million, or almost half the 51 million with mortgages, will be underwater."
The bulls need to step things up soon, or sentiment could turn negative in a hurry. This would be a terrible shock to see the most bullish news this week turn into a rout instead.
Stocks rallied upon the revelation of the details of the auto company bailout revealed this morning by President Bush. Unfortunately, the terms of the loan can be changed at any time, so Mr. Bush is merely passing the baton in a relay race. This creates even more uncertainty about the future than the bailout that Congress was negotiating. Is that perhaps why the rally is starting to fizzle already, just 15 minutes after the news is announced?Here is the full story."President Bush is announcing a $17.4 billion bailout for auto manufacturers, with the loans contingent on the firms proving that they can become "viable" ongoing firms. Of the total, $13.4 billion will be paid out in December and January. The last $4 billion is contingent on the second installment of the Wall Street bailout funds from Congress."
"Over the next four years, 8.1 million U.S. mortgages will enter foreclosure as the recession worsens and home prices continue to fall, Credit Suisse said in a Dec. 4 report. Banks, insurers and mortgage companies have recorded about $1 trillion of losses worldwide since the start of the global credit crunch in 2007."
"Almost 53 percent of borrowers whose loans were modified in the first quarter were more than 30 days overdue by the third quarter, John Dugan, head of the Treasury Department’s Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, said last week at the National Housing Conference in Washington."
Wheat has been moving solidly higher for two weeks now, primarily because weather conditions for winter wheat are not good. Concerns for winterkill are rising, and with it, so are prices. Also, Argentina has cut its wheat forecast. 
After the 359-point rally of the Dow following the Fed's announcement two days ago, a few forces appear to be in a deadly battle for the foreseeable destiny of the stock market. Prices closed convincingly higher than the 50-day moving average on Tuesday, which is highly significant, especially for longer-term traders. Prices have also remained above the 50-day moving average since then. This is quite bullish!
Thus, we see a classic bull/bear battle playing out in the stock market index futures. This typically results in a consolidation pattern. Add to that the fact that volume is weak during the Christmas Holiday season, and we could see some very interesting patterns over the several days, probably lasting until the new year, when volume levels, along with many traders, will return to the markets.
After the plunge in the value of the Dollar over the past few days, I have begun to think that the Dollar had fallen too far, too fast. Likewise, the Euro had climbed against the greenback too far, too fast. "Barack Obama may ask Congress next year to approve a stimulus plan of around $850 billion, an amount that has grown as the U.S. economy sinks deeper into recession, an adviser to the president-elect said."
Click here for the full story.Oil prices tumbled below $40 for the first time since the summer of 2004 Wednesday despite an announcement from OPEC of a record production cut of 2.2 million barrels a day...
"There's just so much oil in inventory out there right now," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. "Nobody wants to buy this stuff."
Crude prices have fallen so low, producers have leased supertankers to store the oil at sea, hoping that oil will rebound.
“I would like to say that we are prepared for this [joining OPEC]. We must defend ourselves, since this is our revenue base, both from oil and gas. These kinds of defensive measures could be tied to lowering oil production, and participating in the existing suppliers organization, and participating in new organizations, if we can come to an agreement beforehand, so to speak.”
If you'd like to read my entire comment, including some other laws of trading, you can read it here:"One of the cardinal rules I use in trading is called Rule #1 from a book by a very successful trader (who, by the way, gives it away FREE):
"Rule #1: Assume it is a bad trade until proven correct! Positions established must be reduced and removed until or unless the market proves the position correct. (from Phantom's Gift -- see my blog site for more info on the book -- absolutely at no cost whatsoever.)
"This rule has saved me a lot of pain, and has ironically also made me a lot of money! Not only is maintaining a losing position bad for my pocketbook. It is bad for my emotional state and it gives control of my money to the market instead of me keeping control of it in my hands."
Treasuries continue to move even higher. This is one monster bubble!
The Euro is in a new bull market -- higher 10 of the past 12 days (and if you blinked, you'd miss the two tiny dojis where the Euro closed lower). The Euro is higher for the past 6 consecutive days! Now that's one raging bull!
Grain prices have been slashed this morning at the open in sympathy to the drop in crude oil prices. Corn, wheat, and soybean prices have also sold off in early trading. I would be very surprised if prices don't recover and move higher."Calpers, the largest pension fund in the US, has said they are going to broaden their approach to commodities investing. Up until now they have followed the index fund long only model, especially the SP GSCI (S+P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index), which is having a losing year. Calpers said they will hire additional commodity advisors and consider investing in commodities from both the long and short side, following trends in both directions rather than only the long side."
OPEC ministers in Algiers have decided to dramatically cut crude oil production by more than double the expected amount, slashing output by 4.2 million barrels of production per day. Even still, the production cut is being met my market forces with somewhat of a yawn. Crude oil is trading lower now than before the announcement! Clearly, the crude oil market sees the cut as necessary given the global economic recession and the temporary glut in supply for the time being. Crude oil appears to be settling into a trading price range of about $43-$49 per barrel. 
Poor follow-through from yesterday's Fed-induced stock market rally leaves me feeling a bit worried. Of course, its still early, so we can hope for a rally during the day session. Fortunately, it appears that after falling about 170 points, the Dow appears to have bottomed and formed somewhat of a rally. Historically, following Fed decisions over the past 18 months, follow-through has been poor the following few days after the decision. Past is likely to be prologue. "With quantitative easing, [the Bank of Japan] flooded commercial banks with excess liquidity to promote private lending, leaving them with large stocks of excess reserves, and therefore little risk of a liquidity shortage. The BOJ accomplished this by buying more government bonds than would be required to set the interest rate to zero. It also bought asset-backed securities, equities, and extended the terms of its commercial paper purchasing operation."
This is the daily chart for corn. Even more amazing is that this chart was complete before the Dollar plunged today. Imagine what this chart will look like when trading begins again this evening! 
After a brief dip, both natural gas and crude oil explode higher also.
What took so long?! Finally, buyers step in to push stock indexes higher also!
While the grain markets were closed at the moment of the Fed's rate decision, gold has gone stratospheric in anticipation of higher inflation.
Why hasn't the stock market moved higher more forcefully? Look at the up and down gyrations following the Fed move. Isn't this decision engineered to send stocks into the stratosphere? This is worrisome to me that stock index futures haven't shown greater enthusiasm for this "anything goes" and "whatever it takes" approach by the Fed. At this writing, one hour following the Fed's decision, the Dow is only about 100 points higher, and it is no higher than it was 1 minute following the Fed announcement. The reaction should have been just as parabolic as the foreign currencies were. This is very troubling indeed. It doesn't feel right to me. 
Just as occurred during the first half of 2008, the ECB has signalled an end to its interest rate easing cycle, and the Fed has signalled even easier money to come. Thus, the Euro is rising once again, and the Dollar is crumbling under the weight of fiscal and monetary ease. The Euro is now in a new bull cycle, and today's trading is symbolic of that longer term trend. This chart shows the new trend on the daily chart.
The return of the slumping US Dollar is providing strong support today for the grains. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have all moved steadily higher from the start of the day session today."[Merrill Lynch analyst Francisco] Blanch changed his 2009 price forecast at least four times this year as the worst global slowdown since 2001 spreads. His most recent estimate that crude may fall to $25 came on Nov. 26. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ 13 members meet in Oran, Algeria, tomorrow to try to stem crude’s decline."Here is the full story.
Click here for the full story.Russian industrial output plunged in November, exceeding even the most pessimistic expectations and affirming that the country's economic fundamentals are too fragile to fend off fears of a recession. Industrial production, hit by liquidity shortages and falling export demand, slumped an unadjusted 8.7% from November 2007, data released Tuesday by the Federal Statistics Service, or Rosstat, showed.
If the US Dollar continues to slide, then we have a classic conflict between the deflationary forces of sluggish demand, and the inflationary forces of a devalued currency. Perhaps this will yield commodity price consolidation or stagflation.
Today we play the waiting game for the Fed rate decision and statement this afternoon. Both volume and volatility have been unusually low yesterday and today.The U.S. consumer price index fell by a seasonally adjusted 1.7%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday, the biggest drop since the government began adjusting the CPI for seasonal factors in 1947. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI fell by 1.9%, the biggest decline since January 1932, at the nadir of the Great Depression.
Corn closed flat today, giving up the overnight gains, probably on stock market weakness. Wheat closed up, but modestly. Soybeans closed down. This seems somewhat bearish to me. I had hoped that we finally broken away from the link to equity markets that has prevailed over the past few weeks/months. Apparently, weak demand imposed by a weak economy still bears sway in the food commodity markets. You can read all of John's latest newsletter by clicking this link. Better yet, why not subscribe!? John's weekly newsletter is free, and it is always good reading!"...storage for oil is very tight. Oil producers are leasing very large ships to store excess oil, as they cannot find places to store it on land. Storing oil on ships is expensive, so that cost of storage gets figured into the price of oil a year out...
"The OPEC nations are not cutting back by any significant amount. Oil is backing up in the system. It is quite possible that oil could go a lot lower in the next few months as the world reels from a global recession, and that means the demand for energy will be down. Oil below $30? Without production cuts that is certainly in the realm of possibility."
This is the daily chart for corn. Does it look like a bottom to you? Despite the mild sell-off at the open of the market this morning, corn still looks like it will hold most of the recent gains, including overnight. Sure looks like a bottom to me!
New York's Empire State Index dropped to a record low of -25.8, after reaching a previous low of -25.4 last month. The index is an indicator of manufacturing activity in the Northeastern region of the United States. Any reading below zero represents a contraction in manufacturing activity. Stocks have shown weakness today as a result, but the Dow is off less than 100 points since Friday's close. Still, after rising nearly 100 points last night, stocks have given up all their gains and more so far today. I have found that if stocks decline less than 100 points following bad news, there is usually a good chance that they will recover. Unless more bad news comes out today, the dip is not that significant to me. 
The dollar fell to an eight-week low versus the euro on speculation a U.S. bailout for the country’s automakers will leave the government less money to protect the financial system. The greenback approached a 13-year low against the yen after U.S. President George W. Bush’s administration said it may use funds set aside for banks to prevent General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC from “collapsing.”Here is a Bloomberg story with details.
"For General Motors Corp., the question is no longer whether it will get a government loan or if Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner will be replaced. It’s whether anything can prevent the largest U.S. automaker from sliding into bankruptcy... GMAC may now have to file for Chapter 11 protection, with or without a loan...'GM already is bankrupt and should file for bankruptcy,' said David Littman, senior economist for the Mackinac Center for Public Policy..."
